America and the nations of the world are on the verge of suffering four years of an unrestrained Donald Trump presidency, little checked by the Republican-controlled Congress or the conservative-dominated Supreme Court. And the obsequious response to Trump’s election from many foreign leaders did not provide much hope that our allies would contain Trump.
But bowing down to Trump does not serve anybody’s interest on either side of America’s borders, save for autocrats like Vladimir Putin, who want Trump to undermine international norms, and any corporate leaders who believe they can preserve their profits by cooperating with a corrupt kakistocracy.
The world needs some elected leaders who are willing to stand up to Trump.
And this week, the impulsive incoming president has given two leaders a golden opportunity to expose the empty nature of Trump’s bullying tactics and sap him of power.
“On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders,” threatened the typographically challenged Trump on his social media website, “I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders. This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!”
For Trump to train his initial fire on America’s closest allies is both illogical and expected, as he was always more interested in punishing democratic friends while coddling dictatorial adversaries. A rational president would not need to threaten Canada and Mexico. They already cooperate with the United States on immigration and drug trafficking, and Trump did not specify what exactly he wants them to do differently. After much bluster during his first term, Trump negotiated a new trade agreement with the bordering nations to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). He touted his United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) at the time as “the largest, most significant, modern, and balanced trade agreement in history.” Yet now the 78-year-old is poised to violate his signature accord unprovoked.
Assuming Trump follows through on his threat, the ball will be in the courts of President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada. Obviously, they need to be sensitive to the economic needs of their constituents. But they would be doing themselves—and the world—a favor by responding to Trump’s tariffs in kind and pressuring him to stand down.
Trump is vulnerable because he is misreading his mandate, and his mandate shapes his negotiating leverage. If a majority of the public—and most Republican officeholders’ constituents—insist Trump impose high tariffs with a complete understanding of how that would increase prices on imported goods, then Trump can wage a trade war without intra-party blowback. But poll after poll tells us that the vast majority of voters, of course, want lower prices. The most reasonable explanation for the 6-point shift towards Trump in the margin of victory from the 2020 to the 2024 presidential elections is swing voters thought Trump would get prices down.
Trump may take some solace in a recent CBS poll that showed a narrow 52 percent majority support higher tariffs. He shouldn’t. The same survey showed 79 percent believe Trump should make lowering the price of goods and services a “high priority,” with another 16 percent saying it should be a “medium priority.” Pretty much every American wants stuff to be cheaper. Still, some don’t understand that tariffs literally raise prices—perhaps because Trump never admitted tariffs raise prices and pretended only other countries would suffer. (Nor do many Americans understand that broad price deflation would risk an economic recession.) Price hikes soon after Trump’s swearing-in would jolt the public.
In other words, Trump is not wielding fearsome leverage when he threatens Canada and Mexico with tariffs. He is pointing a gun at his feet, ready to inflict his own wound.
Meanwhile, the newly inaugurated Sheinbaum enjoys a honeymoon with a 74 percent approval rating. She has some political capital to burn. And standing up for Mexico’s autonomy may deepen the 62-year-old’s initial bond with the public, even if it means some immediate economic upset. Sheinbaum may be making that calculation, as evidenced by her initial response to Trump. “One tariff would be followed by another in response, and so on until we put at risk common businesses,” she said, threatening retaliatory tariffs, “If tariffs go up, who will it hurt? General Motors.” She further blamed America for its own drug problem and for allowing gun smuggling into Mexico.
Trudeau’s political position, at 52, is much more precarious. After serving as Prime Minister for nine years, the once captivating and charismatic leader is scraping the bottom with a job approval of 30 percent, putting control of the government by his Liberal Party in jeopardy before next year’s federal elections. The only politician Canadians may hate more is Donald Trump; only 21 percent wanted Trump to win the election. A fight against Trump may stir Canadian pride and buoy the Liberals.
But the long-term substantive need to constrain Trump’s worst impulses is more important than any short-term political consideration. Allowing Trump to get away with rank bullying will only lead to more irrational policymaking and global instability.
Granted, it is possible that Trump does not care about public opinion. He can’t run for president again (no matter what dark insinuations he makes). He won’t be impeached. The Supreme Court has given him broad criminal immunity for any “official” acts. We have no reason to believe he cares about the future fates of other Republicans or what historians will write about his legacy. A price spike and a tanking of Trump’s job approval may not change his behavior. But it could well change his relationship with other Republicans, who do have to fear accountability in the 2026 midterms and lead to a more robust internal opposition.
Moreover, we have experienced Trump climbing down when he’s gone too far on the political ledge, such as when he ended a government shutdown without securing nearly as much border wall funding as he demanded and when he issued an executive order abandoning his policy of migrant parent-child separations after a few months of public outrage. He’s perfectly capable of using Orwellian language to describe a loss as a win and then move on to instigate a new drama.
Sheinbaum and Trudeau should not fear Trump’s tariffs and beg for mercy. They should exploit his political impetuousness and ineptitude. Trump has a weak hand. Sheinbaum and Trudeau should call the bluff.
